"Offense sells tickets, defense wins championships!"

Las Vegas - Whiplash. That was me after the Broncos beat the Bills 33-30, then came the news that we don't have Bo. We were ready to lay a couple of points with Denver, but with no Nix, it makes the picture muddy. Jarrett Stidham is the backup, and as everyone knows by now, he has NOT thrown a pass or started a game since 2023. Of course, you hear all the glowing reports and coach speak from Sean Payton who said he will be ready to go and ready for the moment. Really? Not sure that the Bank of Benj is open for a backup with no action in a couple of years. Yeah, the Denver defense is wicked. Yeah they led the league in sacks with 68. Yeah the Broncos have won nine of the last 10 at home. However, the Patriots are on an 8-0 heater on the road. They rank in the top ten in both offense and defense. And if you're telling me that Denver's D is shutdown, I beg to differ. With the exception of a 19-3 win over the Chargers, they were rocked for 30 points by the Bills, 34 points by the Jaguars and 26 points by the Packers. The line is moving down after opening -4.5 and we're now seeing -3.5 at Circa and a bunch of other shops. Not gonna follow the money in this spot, and will throw a small handful of chips at the Patriots to advance to Super Sunday.

Could it be any closer? Nope. These two NFC West rivals played twice this season. In the first game, the Rams (-3) beat the Seahawks 21-19 in Los Angeles. The Over/Under total was 49.5 and went low. In the rematch, the Seahawks (-1.5) squeezed past the Rams 38-37 in Seattle. The Over/Under total was 42.5 and went high. We know all about Sam Darnold's problems against the Rams. Last season, when he was with the Vikings, Darnold was sacked nine times and committed two turnovers in a 27-9 playoff loss to the Rams. In Week 11, Sam threw four INTs in the 21-19 loss at L.A. In the rematch, Darnold was sacked four times and threw two picks. But he hit the gas in the 4th quarter. Seattle fell behind 30-14 and Sam engineered a crazy comeback, posting a 38-37 W with a TD pass to Jaxon Smith-Njigba in OT. Looks like Seattle has tightened up the defense the last three weeks, allowing only 10 points to the Panthers, then 3 and 6 points to the 49ers. We know all about Matthew Stafford's historic season, but the question is, are you offense or defense? Stafford and the Rams had the top-scoring offense in the NFL, putting 518 points on the board. Head coach Mike Macdonald guided the Seattle defense to the #1 spot in the NFL, allowing only 292 points. And for those that are not familiar with Macdonald, he was the defensive coordinator for the Ravens back in 2023, and guess what? Baltimore allowed the fewest points (280) in the NFL that season. As the legend in the houndstooth hat, Paul 'Bear' Bryant said, 'Offense sells tickets. Defense wins championships.' Gimme Seattle and the 12th Man by a field goal and make it another tickle.