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Las Vegas - Looking at the lines for the Sweet 16 and as usual, they are very tight. So, time for another delicious two team 6-point teaser. We have talked about KenPom ratings and they are very interesting in the Arizona/Arkansas game. The Wildcats are rated at 128.0 on offense, while the Razorbacks are just a tick behind at 127.7. But the huge difference comes on the defensive side, where 'Zona is rated at 90.1 (#3) while the Hogs are down at 101.9 (#17). Love Darius Acuff Jr., Arkansas' point guard, but he can't do it alone. So, we'll take Arizona from -7.5 down to -1.5 points over the Razorbacks. If the line has moved to -8.5, we still like 'Zona.
Then we pair it with Illinois. Yes, we know that Houston is playing in Houston. The game is at the Toyota Center, but not the Fertitta Center on campus. Call it home city edge, not quite home court edge. The Cougars are tough as nails and hang their hat on defense, but so does Illinois. And both teams have destroyed in the first two rounds. The Illini pounded Penn 105-70, then followed up with a 76-55 victory over VCU. Houston rocked Idaho in the opener 78-47, then crushed Texas A&M 88-57. Either team could advance to the Elite Eight and we're expecting a tight contest. That's why we'll take Illinois and plump 'em up from +3 points to +9 points.
ECKstats
Las Vegas - Checking in on the Sweet 16 tonight for a look at the 'what have you done lately' category. Nebraska (27-6) is playing Iowa (23-12). The Cornhuskers have won six of their last 10 straight up with a 5-5 record against the spread. They have gone Over three times and Under seven times. The Hawkeyes have won just four of the last 10 straight up with a 5-5 record against the spread. They have gone Over only four times and Under six times. These teams have met twice this season. On February 17, Iowa (-1.5) squeezed past Nebraska at home, 57-52. The Over/Under total was 139.5 and went way low. On March 8, Nebraska (-5.5) beat the Hawkeyes at home, 84-75. The Over/Under total was 136.5 and went high.
