2020 MLB Home Run Leader Odds
2019 was the year of the home run in Major League Baseball. If the power numbers continue to be off the charts in 2020, that could mean a value pick surprises as the MLB home run leader.
Entering the 2019 MLB season, it’s likely safe to say almost no one predicted that rookie Pete Alonso would lead the majors in home runs. If he can repeat as MLB home run champ (something that hasn’t been done since Jose Bautista did it in 2010-11), he would pay out at +1000 on the Bovada Sportsbook home run leader props.
2019 leader Alonso second to Trout in HR odds
Despite crushing 53 homers last season, Alonso isn’t the favorite at Bovada. That would be Mike Trout at +900. Trout has never led the majors in home runs in his career. Last season he swatted 45 homers and might have been able to challenge Alonso for the lead if injuries hadn’t limited him to 134 games. For those wondering, Alonso appeared in 161 games last season.
Following Trout and Alonso on the oddsboard are Joey Gallo and Christian Yelich, both at +1200. Gallo was limited to 70 games and 22 home runs last year but he topped 40 homers in each of the previous two seasons. Yelich launched 44 home runs last year in a season also cut short to 130 games due to injury.
Along with Alonso, other former home run kings on the odds list this year include Khris Davis at +4000 and Giancarlo Stanton at +2000.
Davis’ homer total was cut in half in 2019
Davis, the 2018 home run leader with 48, fell off a cliff last year with only 23. Can he regain his old form and challenge the leaders again or are his best days behind him?
Stanton launches some of the loudest home runs in baseball but he hasn’t come close to matching the league-leading 59 round-trippers he hit in 2017. In his first year as a New York Yankee in 2018, he hit only 38 homers. Last year he played in just 18 games. His home run explosion of 2017 marks the only time Stanton has topped 40 homers in his career. Due to his history, he may not be worth a bet.
Stanton’s New York teammate, Aaron Judge, is getting better odds at +1400. Judge finished behind Stanton in 2017 with 52 home runs but has since been plagued by injuries. In his last two seasons combined, Judge has played in only 224 games and hit 54 home runs.
Olson, Soler represent good value in odds
A few value picks on the odds list include Matt Olson at +2200 and Jorge Soler at +2500.
Olson hit 36 home runs last season but that was in only 127 games due to a broken wrist. Tack on another 30-plus games and a healthy wrist and Olson could challenge the home run leaders.
Soler was third in the majors last season with 48 home runs. He doesn’t have much major league success beyond that, which is why he’s listed so low at +2500 and could be a steal if he repeats his power numbers.