Dialed In leads Kentucky Derby betting
With only a few more days before the Kentucky Derby hits the track at Churchill Downs, Dialed In is the oddsmakers' choice as the favorite in the Run for the Roses.
Dialed In currently sits at 3/1 at Bodog, but those odds could improve once the money starts pouring in on the favorite this weekend. The odds on Dialed In could also take a massive leap if his biggest challenger for the winner's circle, Uncle Mo, gets pulled from the race.
Dialed In at 3/1 and Uncle Mo at 4/1 are far ahead of the rest of the field on the Derby odds at Bodog. Earlier this year Uncle Mo was the Derby favorite, and there were even whispers about a possible run at the Triple Crown. Uncle Mo was undefeated last year as a two-year-old and started 2011 with a win in the Timely Writer Stakes at Gulfstream Park.
It all came apart in his next race, the Wood Memorial, where he faded late and ended up third. It was found later that he had a gastrointestinal infection and he's been on antibiotics ever since. Uncle Mo continues to fight the illness and is getting better, but according to owner Mike Repole he is 50-50 for the Derby due to the illness. Is this showmanship and mind games by Repole, or could Uncle Mo's participation in the Derby really be in doubt?
While Uncle Mo's infection has cost him on the odds chart, it's pushed Dialed In to the top. That's not to say Dialed In hasn't also performed on the track. He won the Florida Derby earlier this year versus an impressive field and also won the Holy Bull Stakes. In his only other start he placed second, but still made a play for the win.
If Dialed In is still the favorite on Saturday that doesn't guaranteed him a win at Churchill Downs. Last year in the Derby Lookin at Lucky was the race favorite and ended up finishing sixth, while a year earlier race favorite Friesan Fire wasn't even a factor and finished 18th. In the last 10 runnings of the Derby the horse with the best odds has won only three times.
If Dialed In continues this recent trend of the favorite failing to deliver who should bettors look to then? At Bodog next in line on the odds following the big two are Nehro at 8/1, Archarcharch at 10/1, and Soldat at 12/1.
Nehro has come close to the winner's circle twice this season, with second-place finishes in the Arkansas and Louisiana Derbies. Nehro closes races strong, and despite failing to win his previous Grade 1 races he is a strong contender at Churchill Downs on the 1 ¼ mile distance.
Archarcharch was the horse that beat Nehro in the Arkansas Derby. He also has the stamina to do well at Churchill Downs and looks like a solid darkhorse pick at 10/1 odds. If his odds drop bettors may want to jump on them in case he pulls off an upset.
Finally there's Soldat. He began the year with two wins at Gulfstream that included the Fountain of Youth Stakes. However, he followed that with a fifth-place finish in the Florida Derby. Since Soldat failed when the went head-to-head with Dialed In in Florida he's a risky pick for bettors in the Derby.