Kentucky vs Kansas Final Pick
Kentucky was the favorite before the tournament started and it’s the favorite today, hours before the March Madness final.
The Wildcats opened as 6-point favorite over the Kansas Jayhawks and it has been bet up to -7 at some shops tracked by AmericasLine, making that number the best Kansas line (at Bovada).
Still, the bulk of the betting action in Vegas and online is on Kentucky with its stacked lineup.
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On paper, this is a tight matchup with Thomas Robinson and Anthony Davis – a pair of First Team All-Americans – battling each other in the post. The teams have identical records over the past several weeks. In 10 recent games, each is 9-1 and the average margin of victory for both teams is 11 points.
But even with oddsmakers betting that Robinson will outscore Davis (the prop line is -3.5 for Robinson), the expectation is a Kentucky cover.
Kentucky beat Kansas 75-65 in that game, but it was a preseason battle with little bearing on this match.
And in many instances, the Final Four prop action offers more profit potential. Think the game will feature a lot of three-point shooting? The OVER is 10.5 total treys.
Doron Lamb is favored to hit the game’s first trey and Elijah Johnson is next.
Think Davis will dominate the paint and continue his record-setting play with blocks? The over under is 4.5 blocks for the future No. 1 pick in the draft.
Predicted Score: 85-81 Kentucky
ATS Pick: Kansas +6.5 points
How They Got Here:
Kansas was a 64-62 winner in their Final Four outing against Ohio State. They covered the 3-point spread as underdogs behind a 19-point effort from Thomas Robinson at Mercedes-Benz Superdome.
Kentucky was a 69-61 winner in their Final Four matchup against Louisville. Bettors earned a push of the 8-point spread as favorites behind an 18 -point effort from Anthony Davis at Mercedes-Benz Superdome (although many bettors got the Cardinals at +8.5 points earlier in the week and won their wagers).
Kansas vs Kentucky Props courtesy of Bovada:
(Kansas vs Kentucky) - Total Points - Thomas Robinson (Kansas)
Over 17½
(-120)o
(-120)u
Total Free Throws Made - Thomas Robinson (Kansas)
Over 4½
(-130)o
(-110)u
Total Assists - Thomas Robinson (Kansas)
Over 2½
(+130)o
(-170)u
Total Rebounds - Thomas Robinson (Kansas)
Over 11½
(-120)o
(-120)u
Total Blocks - Thomas Robinson (Kansas)
Over ½
(-130)o
(-110)u
Total Points and Rebounds - Thomas Robinson (Kansas)
Over 28½
(-125)o
(-115)u
Total Points - Anthony Davis (Kentucky)
Over 15½
(-130)o
(-110)u
Total Rebounds - Anthony Davis (Kentucky)
Over 10½
(-135)o
(-105)u
Total Blocks - Anthony Davis (Kentucky)
Over 4½
(EVEN)o
(-140)u
Total Points, Rebounds and Blocks - Anthony Davis (Kentucky)
Over 29½
(-130)o
(-110)u
Total Points - Doron Lamb (Kentucky)
Over 13½
(-130)o
(-110)u
Total Points - Terrence Jones (Kentucky)
Over 12½
(-115)o
(-125)u
Total points - Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (Kentucky)
Over 11½
(-135)o
(-105)u
Total Rebounds - Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (Kentucky)
Over 7½
(-115)o
(-125)u
Total Points - Marquis Teague (Kentucky)
Over 10
(-120)o
(-120)u
Total 3 Point Shots Made - Marquis Teague (Kentucky)
Over ½
(-125)o
(-115)u
(Kansas vs Kentucky) - Who will record more points in the game?
Thomas Robinson (Kansas) -3½ (-120)
Anthony Davis (Kentucky) +3½ (-120)