NFL Week 1 Betting Trends
Football bettors have been reading every word out of camp, watching and re-watching every preseason tilt, and juggling the Week 1 odds in preparation for the NFL season openers. Another handy tool when handicapping NFL action is to open the history books and pick up on some of the trends teams carry into Week 1.
Super Bowl beat hangover
Losing in the Super Bowl is a huge shot to a team's ego - and it looks like it takes more than a summer to recover. Over the past 10 seasons the Super Bowl runner-up is 0-10 against the spread in the following season opener. Last year, the Arizona Cardinals, who lost in crushing fashion to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Super Bowl XLIII, fell 20-16 to the San Francisco 49ers as 5-point Week 1 favorites.
It seems the Super Bowl beat hangover impacts totals as well. In that same 10-year span, Week 1 games involving the Big Game runner-up have gone 1-9 over/under. The lone over payday came back in 2001, when the New York Giants, who lost to the Baltimore Ravens in Super Bowl XXXV, fell 31-20 to the Denver Broncos, failing to cover as 7-point road 'dogs but topping the 44-point total.
This season's Super Bowl runner-up, the Indianapolis Colts, are 2-point road favorites against the Houston Texans, according to Sportsbook.com.
New Orleans Saints are 3-8 over/under in last 11 Week 1 games
The Saints are known for their high-powered offense, especially after winning Super Bowl XLIV last February. However, this recent trend of under paydays proves that oddsmakers are overvaluing that scoring prowess too much in Week 1.
Most teams are still working out the kinks on offense in the season opener, as will be New Orleans when it takes on the Minnesota Vikings on Thursday. BetUS.com has set the game's total at 48 points, which gives plenty of value to this under trend. The same can be said for the Indianapolis Colts, who are 0-5 over/under in their last five season openers.
Atlanta Falcons are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Week 1 games
The Falcons have been a consistent breadwinner in Week 1, including covering the spread in their past two season openers. Last year they beat up on the Miami Dolphins 19-7 as 4-point favorites, and they are tagged as faves again for this Sunday's opener against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Sunday's spread is a tricky one to navigate. Bodog.com has Atlanta set as a 2.5-point road favorite versus a Steelers squad that is missing its starting quarterback. Dennis Dixon will get the nod for Pittsburgh in place of Ben Roethlisberger and face a Falcons defense that looks very solid heading into the season. Atlanta gave up just over two touchdowns on 254 total yards against per game in the preseason.