Super Bowl XLV Picks

Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers may be the favorites in Super Bowl XLV, but we expect Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers to win their third Lombardi Trophy in the last six years on Sunday.

The latest line on the big game at Bodog has the Packers listed as a 3-point favorite. Unfortunately for the Packers, being the favorite in the Super Bowl hasn't meant a whole lot in recent years. Remember last year when the Colts were a 4.5-point favorite versus the Saints? New Orleans went on to dump the Colts 31-17.

In the last 10 Super Bowls the favored team is only 5-5 SU and they're an even worse 2-8 ATS. In their last two trips to the Super Bowl the Packers were favored both times. They took care of the Patriots in what turned out to be a PUSH against the spread, but a year later against the Broncos they were upset 31-24 as an 11.5-point favorite.

The real difference between the Packers and Steelers this weekend is that Pittsburgh's current regime has been here before. Twice in fact. Look for that Super Bowl experience to win out in what still should be a close game.

For totals bettors the UNDER looks like the best wager this weekend. The total is currently set at 44.5, which seems a little high for a battle between the top two scoring defenses in the league this season.

If you don't think the 44.5-point posted total looks a little high take a look at this stat. In the Steelers' last seven games the highest posted total was 39.5. The Steelers were 4-3 OVER in those seven games, but only two of them would have gone OVER a total of 44.5. Another stat to keep in mind - of the last six Super Bowls five of them went UNDER the posted total.

Picks: Pittsburgh +3 and UNDER 44.5

Wager on Super Bowl XLV at BetUS and get a 55% Bonus on your deposit - Click Here!