Trends Point to Week 1 NFL Winners
When the biggest positive trend for one team plays into the biggest negative trend for another team, it’s time to hunker down and get serious about strolling up to the online sportsbook window.
Week 1 of the NFL season kicks off Thursday with the past two Super Bowl champs facing off. New Orleans visits Green Bay as a 4.5-point underdog. And while this game earns deserved hype as the season opener and your sole handicapping focus, it’s not one where recent or historical trends point to a lock.
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“It’s a great chance to turn a big profit right out of the gate, but not for people who rely too heavily on preseason standings or recent press clippings,” says Mike Pickett of OddsShark.com.
“There are overrated teams coming out of the preseason 4-0 and strong teams who didn’t bother trying in the preseason coming out 0-4.”
Atlanta -2.5 @ Chicago – total 40.5
The Falcons limp out of the preseason at 0-4, but they have been dynamite in openers, going 10-2 ATS past 12 seasons. The UNDER however is where the trends seem to align. The UNDER is 11-2 in their past 13 Sept road games, while the Bears are 15-4 favoring the UNDER the past 19 times they were an underdog. The Bears have also played six straight Week 1 UNDERs. [ 100% Deposit Bonus - Limited Time - Only at Bodog ]
Philadelphia -4.5 @ St. Louis – total 44
The Rams sprint out of the preseason at 4-0, but beware this match for a couple of reasons. For starters, the Eagles are explosive and could blow this game open before halftime. Second, the Rams have been Week 1 bleeders, going just 1-8-1 ATS the past 10 years. Contrast that with the fact Philly is 8-1-1 ATS against them the past 10 meetings and you have a recipe for an Eagle cover.
Bills +7 @ Kansas City – total 40
Two things almost always happen when the Bills play the Chiefs. First, Buffalo always covers the spread (7-2 ATS) and second, the game always goes UNDER (8-1 past 9 meetings). The Bills, for all their problems and, when you are the biggest Super Bowl longshot on the board, there are many, are 6-1 ATS the past seven years in Week 1. The Chiefs aren’t great and are due for a step back from last year’s surprise season. Maybe it starts in Week 1.
Patriots -8 @ Miami – total 45
Ironically, the third game listed here where the road team is favored (it only happens four times in Week 1). The Patriots have scored at least 41 points in three of their past four visits here and they are 7-1 favoring the OVER in September road games. New England proved they can score at will, but may also be susceptible to the same.
Is the OVER the play, despite the highest Week 1 total? Or reconcile this confusing ATS scenario – the Dolphins are 0-7 ATS past 7 September home games and 1-5-1 ATS past seven openers but they are also 12-3 ATS the past 15 times they were a dog of eight or more points.
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