Week 5 Thursday Night Football Odds Preview

The New England Patriots are road favorites this week as they look for a win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football.

At Bovada Sportsbook, the Patriots are a 6-point favorite. Last week they were a 9-point home favorite in a 33-30 loss to the Carolina Panthers. Tom Brady completed 32 of 45 passes for 307 yards and two touchdowns in the loss. Rob Gronkowski led New England with four catches for 80 yards, while Chris Hogan added five receptions for 60 yards and a TD.

The New England defense proved to be its weakness again, surrendering 444 yards to the Panthers. Through four weeks this season, New England boasts the No. 1 offense in the league averaging 445.3 yards per game but it’s been negated by the worst-ranked defense in the league, which is yielding 456.8 yards per game.

Tampa Bay defeated the New York Giants 25-23 last week but failed to cover the 2.5-point spread. Jameis Winston had a strong game in the win, completing 22 of 38 passes for 332 yards and three touchdowns. Jacquizz Rodgers rushed for 83 yards on 16 carries but could see his workload lessen this week with Doug Martin eligible to return from suspension. Cameron Brate hauled in four passes for 80 yards and a touchdown, while Mike Evans had five receptions for 67 yards and a TD.

The Patriots dropped to 1-3 against the spread on the season with last week’s loss, but they have a nine-game winning streak going on the road, during which they are 8-1 ATS. In the last eight games as a road favorite, New England is 8-0 straight up and 7-1 ATS.

By failing to cover last week, Tampa Bay dropped to 1-4 ATS in its last five games. At home the Buccaneers have won six straight SU at 4-2 ATS. As a home underdog they’ve won their last two games SU and they’re 3-2 SU and ATS in their last five. Nights games don’t tend to favor the Bucs, who are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 night games.

The matchups trends favor New England. The Patriots have won three in a row SU and ATS versus the Buccaneers. In their last seven against Tampa Bay, the Patriots are 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS.