final 4
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Las Vegas - Great day for college hoops but a tough day to lay big wood in both games. Purdue is a better team than NC State, according to the power ratings. But the Wolfpack in on an epic run, winning nine in a row and covering seven of the last eight. Not gonna ask State to beat the Boilermakers, but will take the spread from +9.5 to +15.5 points as the first half of my two team 6-point teaser. In the late game, gonna bump Alabama up from +12 to +18 points against Connecticut. Just like everyone else, we have been watching UConn blow away the opposition by an average of 27+ points per game in the tournament, but these kids from 'Bama can fill up the hoop. Totally expect the Huskies to advance to the title game on Monday night, but only by a dozen.
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*ECKstats*
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Las Vegas - For your wagering pleasure, here are your spread stats for the late Final Four game. Connecticut comes in with a 35-3 straight up record and 26-12 against the spread. The Huskies are 16-5 on the road and have a 26-11 record as a favorite. On the totals board, they have gone Over 16 times and Under 21 with one push. Alabama comes in with a 25-11 straight up record and 21-15 against the spread. The Crimson Tide is 9-10 on the road and have a 3-6 record as an underdog. On the totals board, they have gone Over 27 times and Under nine.
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*Horse Racing*
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As always, our main man on the track, Martin Calia, is ready to put some chips in your piggy bank...take it away Marty...
We have three Kentucky Derby prep races today. The Wood Memorial from Aqueduct in New York, the Bluegrass Stakes from Lexington, Kentucky and the Santa Anita Derby from California. Let’s start with the Wood. The last several runnings have produced high price winners ( $170 and $146) and we might get the same today! We have two undefeated three year olds, #4 Deterministic trained by C. Clement and # 9 Tuscan Sky trained by T. Pletcher. Both are two for two but lightly raced. Another long shot winner would not surprise me in this field but I’ll take a shot with #9 Tuscan Sky. He won his maiden race then moved to non winners allowance. He is taking a big step up in class today but if a trainer can make this jump look easy, it’s Todd Pletcher. I think having jockey Manny Franco back in the saddle since his maiden win is a plus. A bullet work on March 30 of 48.3 screams off the page. Tuscan needs to finish first or second to secure enough derby points to run for the roses on the first Saturday in May. Oh and by the way his daddy Vino Rosso won this race back in 2018! So it’s $100 across the board on #9 Tuscan Sky and a $5 exacta wheel 9 with all.
Now on to Keeneland. It’s the rematch between #4 Dornoch and #10 Sierra Leone. They met in the Grade 2 Remsen in New York and Dornoch prevailed by a nose. Dornoch then went on to win the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream. If not for that loss by a nose, Sierra Leone would be undefeated. Leone is trained by Chad Brown who wins at a 20% clip in graded stakes races. Leone's sire is Gun Runner and the added distance to a mile and an eight will not be a problem. The horse has been working down in Florida after capturing the Grade 2 Risen Star at the Fairgrounds. The late running style of Leone fits the Keeneland track to a tee! Look for him making a big move around the three quarter poll. He gets his revenge on Dornoch. Let’s place a Benjamin Lee across the board on #10 Sierra Leone and a $5 exacta wheel 10 with all.
Out West, the last prep is the Santa Anita Derby. Trainer Bob Baffert , who is serving a Kentucky Derby ban has two runners in this race. He sends out the favorite #4 Imagination and # 5 Wynstock. If either horse wins they can not earn derby points because of the ban. But Baffert has won this race five times and will probably make it number six today with Imagination. In his last race, Imagination won the Grade 2 San Felipe. He has never been worse than second in five starts and retains top jockey Frankie Dettori. Let’s sizzle with a Benjamin across the board on #4 Imagination and a $5 exacta wheel 4 with all.
Good luck !
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