more props
Las Vegas - Welcome to PROP CITY BAABBBEEE!!!
Start out today's visit to Prop World with the first player to score a TD. Not interested in the two favorites, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill, both at 6/1, because I'm looking for a real BANG for my Super Bowl bucks. So, gimme a small taste of Leonard Fournette at 10/1 and Clyde Edwards-Helaire at 15/1. Also gonna try Patrick Mahomes at 20/1 because, well, because he's FREAKIN' PATRICK MAHOMES!
Saving the majority of my chips for the two Tampa Bay tight ends, Cameron Brate and Rob Gronkowski, both right around 20/1. After doing some research, we noticed that the Chiefs basically suck against defending tight ends. The stats tell us that Kaycee's D is DEAD LAST in success rate allowed against TEs in the red zone at 75%. OUCH!
For all my high tech stat GEEKS that look at every analytic and metric available, lets talk DVOA. What? For those that still handicap with old school methods, DVOA is Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. It comes from the talented brainiacs at the Football Outsiders.
Here's an explanation from the Outsiders...DVOA breaks down the entire season play-by-play, comparing success on each play to the league average. It's based on a number of variables including down, distance, location on field, current score gap, quarter, and opponent quality. While it can be used as a measure of total team performance, it differs from most power ratings because it can be broken down to analyze team effectiveness in any number of ways: down, quarter, rushing vs. receiving, location on field, passes to backs vs. passes to receivers, and so on.
So, if you're thrilled that Tampa Bay sits in the TOP FIVE in both offensive and defensive DVOA, and think you gotta walk to the window and buy the Bucs, take a breath plz. Tampa is only the 4th team since expansion to rock a TOP FIVE on both sides of the ball, but there's one more sentence you need to hear. The last three teams that played on Super Sunday and were TOP FIVE in both, are, you sitting, OH & THREE!
The moral of that story is, DON'T bet trends blindly without doing the requisite research.
Bouncing over to college hoops and taking a little two team 6-point teaser. Starting with Houston, and dropping the Cougars from -16 to -10 points over East Carolina. Then get your sled, slide up to New York City, and slice Villanova from -8 to -2 points against St. John's.
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*NFL*
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*Favorite * *Points* *Underdog*
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* *Open *Current* O/U* *
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*Super Bowl LV*
*Sunday*
*Tampa Bay, FL*
Chiefs * 3.5 * 3 * (56.5) * BUCS*
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Money Line: Chiefs -$170 vs. Bucs +$150*
1st half line: Chiefs -2.5*
1st half total: Over/under 27.5*
1st half money Line: Chiefs -$150 vs. Bucs +$130*
1st Q line: Chiefs -0.5*
1st Q total: Over/under 10.0*
1st Q money Line: Chiefs -$140 vs. Bucs +$120*
2nd Q line: Chiefs -0.5*
2nd Q total: Over/under 17.0*
2nd Q money Line: Chiefs -$165vs. Bucs +$145*
3rd Q line: Chiefs -0.5*
3rd Q total: Over/under 10.5*
3rd Q money Line: Chiefs -$150 vs. Bucs +$130*
4th Q line: Chiefs -0.5*
4th Q total: Over/under 14.5*
4th Q money Line: Chiefs -$140 vs. Bucs +$120*
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Pat Mahomes total passing yards: Over/under 327.5*
Tom Brady total passing yards: Over/under 299.5*
Pat Mahomes total TD passes: Over/under 2.5*
Tom Brady total TD passes: Over/under 2.5*
Pat Mahomes total pass attempts: Over/under 41.5*
Tom Brady total pass attempts: Over/under 40.5*
Pat Mahomes total completions: Over/under 28.5*
Tom Brady total completions: Over/under 26.5*
Pat Mahomes longest completion: Over/under 40.5*
Tom Brady longest completion: Over/under 39.5*
Pat Mahomes completion percentage: Over/under 70.5%*
Tom Brady completion percentage: Over/under 62.5%*
Pat Mahomes total rushing yards: Over/under 19.5*
Tom Brady total rushing yards: Over/under 4.5*
Leonard Fournette rushing yards: Over/under 51.5*
Darrel Williams rushing yards: Over/under 41.5*
Travis Kelce receiving yards: Over/under 101.5*
Tyreek Hill receiving yards: Over/under 90.5*
Chris Godwin receiving yards: Over/under 75.5*
Mike Evans receiving yards: Over/under 64.5*
Rob Gronkowski receiving yards: Over/under 31.5*
Cameron Brate receiving yards: Over/under 27.5*
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Total points for Chiefs: Over/under 29.5*
Total points for Bucs: Over/under 26.5*
Total points for Chiefs 1st half: Over/under 15.5*
Total points for Bucs 1st half: Over/under 13.5*
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Longest TD scored: Over/under 46.5 yards*
Shortest TD scored: Over/under 1.5 yards*
Longest FG scored: Over/under 48.5 yards*
Shortest FG scored: Over/under 26.5 yards*
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*National Anthem Over/Under*
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How long will it take Eric Church & Jazmine Sullivan
to sing the National Anthem: Over/under 1:59*
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*Who will sing the first note*
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Jazmine Sullivan * 1/2*
Eric Church * 6/5*
Both together * 3/2*
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*Who will sing the last note*
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Jazmine Sullivan * 1/2*
Eric Church * 6/5*
Both together * 3/2*
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*Will any scoring drive be less than the Anthem*
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Yes * -$350*
vs.
No * +$225*
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*Total Passing Yards*
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Mahomes * Yards * Brady*
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x/x * 200 yards or more * 1/10*
1/8 * 250 yards or more * 1/4*
1/2 * 300 yards or more * 1/2*
even * 350 yards or more * 2/1*
7/2 * 400 yards or more * 5/1*
10/1 * 450 yards or more * x/x*
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*Longest Pass Completion*
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Mahomes * Yards * Brady*
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9/2 * 0-24 yards * 4/1*
6/5 * 25-39 yards * 6/5*
2/1 * 40-54 yards * 2/1*
7/2 * 55 yards or more * 4/1*
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*Total Rushing Yards*
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Fournette * Yards * Williams*
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1/5 * 25 yards or more * 1/3*
1/2 * 50 yards or more * even*
2/1 * 75 yards or more * 3/1*
9/2 * 100 yards or more * 8/1*
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*Total Receiving Yards*
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Kelce * Yards * Godwin*
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1/4 * 75 yards or more * 4/5*
1/2 * 100 yards or more * 3/2*
3/2 * 125 yards or more * 4/1*
3/1 * 150 yards or more * 8/1*
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*Total Receiving Yards*
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Hill * Yards * Evans*
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1/2 * 75 yards or more * even*
even * 100 yards or more * 5/2*
2/1 * 125 yards or more * 5/1*
9/2 * 150 yards or more * 10/1*
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*Winning Margin Proposition*
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Chiefs * Winning Margin * Bucs*
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7/2 * 1-6 points * 4/1*
5/1 * 7-12 points * 6/1*
8/1 * 13-18 points * 10/1*
10/1 * 19-24 points * 15/1*
15/1 * 25-30 points * 30/1*
25/1 * 31-36 points * 40/1*
40/1 * 37-42 points * 60/1*
50/1 * 43 or more points * 100/1*
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*What will Mahomes throw first*
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TD * -$360*
vs.
INT * +$300*
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*What will Brady throw first*
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TD * -$320*
vs.
INT * +$260*
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*How long will Mahomes' first TD pass be*
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Under 13.5 yards * -$120*
vs.
Over 13.5 yards * even*
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*How long will Brady's first TD pass be*
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Under 12.5 yards * -$110*
vs.
Over 12.5 yards * -$110*
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*Which QB will throw the first TD*
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Mahomes * -$140*
vs.
Brady * +$120*
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*Which QB will throw the first INT*
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Brady * -$145*
vs.
Mahomes * +$125*
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*Coin Toss*
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Heads * even*
vs.
Tails * even*
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*First Turnover*
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Interception * -$140*
vs.
Fumble * +$120*
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*Will there be a roughing the passer penalty*
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No * -$120*
vs.
Yes * even*
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*Will there be a safety*
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No * 1/15*
vs.
Yes * 8/1*
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*Will either team make a 2-point conversion*
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No * 1/3*
vs.
Yes * 5/2*
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*Will either team miss an XP conversion*
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No * 1/3*
vs.
Yes * 5/2*
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*Will any quarter end scoreless*
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No * 1/15*
vs.
Yes * 8/1*
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*First offensive play from scrimmage*
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Pass * 4/5*
vs.
Run * even*
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*Any FG or XP to hit the crossbar*
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No * 1/5*
vs.
Yes * 4/1*
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*1st half 2 minute warning at exactly 2:00*
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Yes * 1/4*
vs.
No * 3/1*
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*2nd half 2 minute warning at exactly 2:00*
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Yes * 1/3*
vs.
No * 5/2*
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*Final play of the game is a QB kneel down*
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Yes * 1/2*
vs.
No * 3/2*
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*First drive of the game*
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Punt * 4/5*
Touchdown * 2/1*
Field goal attempt * 9/2*
Turnover * 8/1*
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*Exact Total TDs*
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0 * 100/1*
1 * 50/1*
2 * 25/1*
3 * 10/1*
4 * 8/1*
5 * 9/2*
6 * 9/2*
7 * 9/2*
8 * 6/1*
9 * 8/1*
10 or more * 5/1*
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*Exact Total FGs*
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0 * 20/1*
1 * 6/1*
2 * 7/2*
3 * 3/1*
4 * 7/2*
5 * 5/1*
6 or more * 5/1*
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*Total TDs*
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Over * TDs * Under*
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1/2 * 5.5 * 3/2*
4/5 * 6.5 * 4/5*
3/2 * 7.5 * 1/2*
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*Total FGs*
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Over * FGs * Under*
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1/2 * 2.5 * 3/2*
even * 3.5 * 1/2*
5/2 * 4.5 * 1/3*
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*Double Result*
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Chiefs lead at halftime & win * 6/5*
Bucs lead at halftime & win * 5/2*
Chiefs lead at halftime & Bucs win * 7/1*
Bucs lead at halftime & Chiefs win * 6/1*
Tied at halftime & Chiefs win * 15/1*
Tied at halftime & Bucs win * 20/1*
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*First scoring play*
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Chiefs touchdown * 3/2*
Bucs touchdown * 2/1*
Chiefs field goal * 4/1*
Bucs field goal * 9/2*
Chiefs safety * 50/1*
Bucs safety * 50/1*
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*Spread/Total Points Parlay*
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Chiefs & Over * 3/1*
Chiefs & Under * 5/2*
Bucs & Over * 5/2*
Bucs & Under * 5/2*
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*Highest scoring quarter*
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2nd quarter * 3/2*
4th quarter * 5/2*
3rd quarter * 9/2*
1st quarter * 5/1*
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*Punt Props*
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Under 6.5 punts * 1/2*
vs.
Over 6.5 punts * 6/5*
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*Total Chiefs Punts*
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Under 3.5 punts * 1/2*
vs.
Over 3.5 punts * 6/5*
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*Total Bucs Punts*
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Under 3.5 punts * even*
vs.
Over 3.5 punts * 4/5*
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*Team to Punt first*
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Bucs * 1/2*
vs.
Chiefs * 6/5*
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*Team to have the most Punts*
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Bucs * 1/2*
vs.
Chiefs * 6/5*
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*Punt downed inside the 5-yard line*
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No * 1/4*
vs.
Yes * 7/2*
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*Odds to win the Super Bowl MVP*
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Player * Odds*
----------------------------------------------------
Patrick Mahomes * 4/5*
Tom Brady * 2/1*
Tyreek Hill * 12/1*
Travis Kelce * 15/1*
Leonard Fournette * 25/1*
Clyde Edwards-Helaire * 30/1*
Mike Evans * 30/1*
Chris Godwin * 30/1*
Darrell Williams * 40/1*
Tyrann Mathieu * 40/1*
Mecole Hardman * 50/1*
Devin White * 50/1*
Shaquil Barrett * 50/1*
Ronald Jones II * 50/1*
Antonio Brown * 60/1*
Rob Gronkowski * 70/1*
Jason Pierre-Paul * 75/1*
Sammy Watkins * 80/1*
Cameron Brate * 80/1*
Le'Veon Bell * 100/1*
Ndamukong Suh * 100/1*
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*Player to score first TD*
----------------------------------------------------
Player * Odds*
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Travis Kelce * 6/1*
Tyreek Hill * 6/1*
Leonard Fournette * 10/1*
Mike Evans * 10/1*
Chris Godwin * 10/1*
Clyde Edwards-Helaire * 15/1*
Darrell Williams * 15/1*
Mecole Hardman * 18/1*
Ronald Jones II * 20/1*
Antonio Brown * 20/1*
Rob Gronkowski * 20/1*
Sammy Watkins * 20/1*
Patrick Mahomes * 20/1*
Cameron Brate * 20/1*
Demarcus Robinson * 25/1*
Byron Pringle * 25/1*
Scotty Miller * 30/1*
Tom Brady * 30/1*
Le'Veon Bell * 40/1*
LeSean McCoy * 75/1*
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*ECKS 2021 SUPER BOWL SPREAD STATS*
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*2020*
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Bucs - Overall spread record * 11-8-0*
Bucs - Spread record as a favorite * 7-7-0*
Bucs - Spread record as an underdog * 4-1-0*
Bucs - Spread record on the road * 6-5-0*
Bucs - Spread record to the Over * 11-0-0*
Bucs - Spread record to the Under * 8-0-0*
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*2020*
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Chiefs - Overall spread record * 7-10-1*
Chiefs - Spread record as a favorite * 6-9-1*
Chiefs - Spread record as an underdog * 1-1-0*
Chiefs - Spread record on the road * 3-4-1*
Chiefs - Spread record to the Over * 9-0-0*
Chiefs - Spread record to the Under * 9-0-0*
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*GATORADE PROPS*
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*What color Gatorade will be poured on winning coach*
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Orange * 5/2*
Clear * 7/2*
Red/Pink * 4/1*
Yellow/Green/Lime * 5/1*
Blue * 8/1*
Purple * 10/1*
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*TV COMMERCIAL PROPS*
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*Which bag is seen first during the Frito-Lay ad*
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Lay's * 2/1*
Doritos * 5/2*
Tostitos * 5/2*
Cheetos * 3/1*
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*TV COMMERCIAL PROPS*
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*Which will be the first Anheuser-Busch brand ad*
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Bud Light * 6/5*
Michelob Ultra * 2/1*
Bud Light Seltzer Lemonade * 2/1*
Michelob Ultra Organic Lemonade * 2/1*
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*WEEKND PROPS*
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*Which song will The Weeknd sing first*
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“Blinding Lights” * 3/1*
“Pray For Me” * 7/2*
“Star Boy” * 4/1*
“Can't Feel My Face” * 4/1*
“Hawaii” * 8/1*
“I Feel It Coming” * 10/1*
“The Hills” * 10/1*
“Save Your Tears” * 15/1*
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*Cross Sport Props*
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What will be higher:
Tom Brady pass completions -$120*
vs.
New York Knicks 1st quarter points -$120*
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What will be higher:
Tom Brady TD passes -$240*
vs.
Alex Ovechkin total points -$200*
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What will be higher:
Winning horse number in Kentucky Derby -$150*
vs.
Travis Kelce receptions +$130*
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What will be higher:
Travis Kelce receiving yards -$240*
vs.
Highest round score at the Masters +$200*
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What will be higher:
Rob Gronkowski receiving yards -$120*
vs.
Tampa Bay Lightning shots on goal -$120*
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What will be higher:
Ronald Jones III carries -$160*
vs.
Chris Paul assists +$140*
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