NFL Championship Weekend Picks

If we're right this weekend, it will be the Packers and the Steelers in Super Bowl XLV.

Green Bay at Chicago (+3/43.5)

The Packers are favored for the first time this postseason, and we think they'll deliver a road win and a cover this weekend. The Packers may have lost in Chicago earlier this season but that was a gift win for the Bears. Green Bay played horribly in the loss with a ton of penalties and mistakes and they still only lost by three. Aaron Rodgers should have no problem outplaying Jay Cutler this weekend, as Cutler has trouble against Green Bay with a 65.0 QB rating against them in his career.

Totals bettors should look at the UNDER in the NFC this weekend. Both regular season matchups between the Packers and Bears went UNDER, and they've got a six-game UNDER streak going. Green Bay was 7-1 UNDER on the road this season, and in their last six games at Chicago the UNDER is 5-1.

Picks: Green Bay -3 and UNDER 43.5

NY Jets at Pittsburgh (-3.5/39)

The Jets have never won an AFC Championship Game and we don't see that trend ending this weekend. Sure, the Jets may have won in Pittsburgh earlier this season, but the Steelers were without defensive wonder Troy Polamalu in that game. Add the super safety to the Pittsburgh defense and it's like you're adding four-wheel drive to an already powerful pickup truck. The home team has won the last four AFC title games, and Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in their last six home games against the Jets.

Totals bettors may think the UNDER looks good with two tough defenses squaring off, but with such a low total of 39 you should be betting the OVER. Both the Jets and Steelers went OVER last week, and this season, including the playoffs, the Jets are 9-1 OVER on the road. For some reason the Steelers are always OVER at home in January with a 13-0 OVER record in their last 13 January games in Pittsburgh.

Picks: Steelers -3.5 and OVER 39