UFC 158 Betting: GSP Favored over Diaz

Georges St.Pierre's solid performance solved the mystery of his knee injury with a unanimous decision victory over an active Carlos Condit.

The next mystery brings the test of crisp boxing, dangerous submission techniques and brutal cardio of Stockton tough guy Nick Diaz. GSP was -500 at Bovada with Diaz paying +350 as the underdog.

But it's really Diaz that has the biggest mystery to solve, with GSP's dominant wrestling controlling opponents’ takedown after relentless takedown. GSP can even use the threat of takedown to take away some of the edge Diaz holds in boxing, much like Cain Velasquez did to Junior dos Santos, but Diaz fears little so expect him to welcome those takedowns.

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The ground could be the most interesting part of the fight as GSP's top control wilts strong fighters over the rounds, but also where Diaz and his long limbs can end the fight with any number of submissions.

If it stays on the feet, GSP could likely follow lightweight champion Benson Henderson's approach with brother Nate Diaz, who possesses a similar fighting style. Pepper his lead leg with numerous oblique and inside kicks, circle away from his non-stop punching and take him down to win each round.

In reality, GSP possesses all the tools necessary to keep the fight within his range, but if Diaz's trash-talking lures him into fighting emotionally or carelessly, we could be introduced to the first new welterweight champion in over six years.

Hendricks vs Condit

Johny Hendricks's five fight win streak in the welterweight division is almost as impressive as how he's won those fights- a mix of dominant wrestling and some sterling knockout power.

Condit, who has never been knocked out, brings Hendricks his sternest test, boasting a well-rounded mix of striking and submission skills. Hendricks doesn't change much- he will either bomb you with his powerful left hand or take you down and rain misery there. Hendricks was -145 midweek at Bovada while Condit would pay +115 for the upset.

With that in mind, will Condit employ the same strategy he used to grind out a victory against voluminous striker Nick Diaz? Where he would land a few strikes and then circle out of range?

He kicked Diaz quite a bit but against a top-tier wrestler like Hendricks those kicks translates into easy takedowns as it happened with Georges St. Pierre. And does Hendricks have the cardio to keep up with Condit if he keeps the fight at a safe distance?

And has Hendricks fallen so in love with his punching power that he foregoes his wrestling game to stalk Condit around the Octagon, much like Rampage Jackson in the latter stages of his career? The key for Condit might be to keep the fight standing and just outside the range of Hendricks's poisonous left hand.

Ellenberger vs Marquardt

Power meets power when Ellenberger takes on Marquardt in another stellar welterweight match-up at UFC 158. Both men have dominated in recent fights, but Marquardt, at times, can fight uninspired.

When he dropped down from middleweight, Marquardt looked prepared to threaten GSP's stranglehold on the division but then a flat performance in the Strikeforce finale against Tarec Saffiedine nearly cost him a job with the UFC. Jake is -165 as of Wednesday at Bovada with Nate at +135.

Ellenberger keeps circling the top of the mountain but must beat Marquardt to not lose any footing in the most competitive division in the UFC.

Look for a fair amount of exchanges on the feet but with Ellenberger eventually taking the tough-as-nails Marquardt to the ground and grinding out a victory if he brings anything less than his best.