AFC Championship Game Betting Odds Preview

It’s just like old times in the AFC Championship Game this weekend as Tom Brady and Peyton Manning square off again with the New England Patriots visiting the Denver Broncos.

New England may be the road team, but they’re the early favorites at online sportsbook Bovada at -3.5. Last week the Patriots defeated Kansas City 27-20 as a 6-point favorite. Brady passed for 302 yards with a pair of touchdown passes and a TD run in the win. Julian Edelman made a successful return from a broken foot with 10 receptions for 100 yards and Rob Gronkowski wasn’t hindered by a knee injury as he had seven catches for 83 yards and two touchdowns.

Denver got past Pittsburgh last week 23-16 as a 7-point home favorite. Manning passed for 222 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions for Denver. C.J. Anderson rushed for 72 yards with a touchdown and Brandon McManus provided the bulk of the scoring with five field goals.

In Week 12 the Broncos hosted the Patriots with Manning sidelined but still pulled out a 30-24 upset win as a 2.5-point underdog. Brock Osweiler started at QB for Denver and had three touchdowns. Brady also had three touchdowns, while Anderson had a strong game for Denver with 113 rushing yards and two TDs.

Despite that loss in Week 12 the Patriots have had some recent success against Denver at 5-2 SU and ATS in their last seven games. In Denver it’s a different story. The Broncos have dominated this matchup at home with a 5-1 record SU and ATS in their last six and a 14-3 SU and 13-4 ATS mark in their last 17.

At home this season the Broncos were 7-2 SU, but only 3-5-1 ATS. In two games as a home underdog this season the Broncos were a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS and in their last nine as a home ‘dog they are 4-5 SU and 5-4 ATS.

New England was a somewhat disappointing 5-3 SU and 3-5 ATS on the road this season. In their last four games as a road favorite the Pats are only 1-3 SU and ATS. In their last 11 appearances in the conference championship the Pats are 8-3 SU, but they’re only 1-5 ATS in their last six.

This history of the Brady vs. Manning showdowns tilts heavily in Brady’s favor. In their 16 matchups Brady is 11-5 SU and 9-6-1 ATS. Somewhat surprisingly Brady was favored in only six of those 16 meetings, going 5-1 SU and 2-3-1 ATS.