AFC Championship Game Betting Preview

It seems the inevitable has happened again this year, as the New England Patriots will play in the AFC championship game for the eighth straight year.

This year’s opponent for the Patriots is the Kansas City Chiefs. With the game being played in Kansas City, the Chiefs are a 3-point favorite at Bovada Sportsbook. That marks the first time since 2016 that the Patriots have been listed as an underdog.

New England booked its spot in the AFC title game by thrashing the Los Angeles Chargers 41-28 as a 4-point home favorite. With that win the Patriots improved to 6-1 straight up and 5-2 against the spread in their last seven playoff games.

Patriots 7-1 SU, ATS in last 8 as underdog

It may have been a while since the Patriots has been listed as an underdog, but when they have, they’ve usually proven the oddsmakers wrong. In their last eight games as an underdog, the Pats are 7-1 SU and ATS.

One thing that could bring about New England’s demise this weekend is playing on the road. This season in road games the Patriots were 3-5 SU and ATS. In the postseason they’ve lost three straight on the road and they’re 3-8 SU and 4-7 ATS in their last 11 playoff road games.

The Chiefs advanced to the AFC title game for the first time since 1993 by defeating the Indianapolis Colts 31-13 as a 4.5-point favorite. The Chiefs are hoping that win is the start of erasing some miserable playoff history. Including last week’s win, the Chiefs are 2-11 SU and ATS in their last 13 playoff games. Last week’s win also snapped a six-game home playoff game losing streak SU, and an eight-game home playoff losing streak ATS.

Home team 11-1 SU in last 12 AFC title games

The Patriots and Chiefs met up in New England back in Week 6 and the Patriots came away with a 43-40 win as a 3.5-point favorite. In their last 10 games against the Chiefs, the Patriots are 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS. However, in Kansas City, the Patriots are 1-5 SU and 4-2 ATS in their last six.

The home team has dominated the AFC championship for more than a decade with an 11-1 record SU in the last 12 matchups. The favorite is 10-2 SU in those 12 games, and the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five.

For totals bettors the UNDER has been the way to go for years in the AFC title game. In the last seven matchups, the UNDER is 6-1.