NFL Betting: NFL MVP Odds
The NFL MVP Award has been dominated by quarterbacks for more than a decade, so it should come as no surprise that the favorites to take home the award in 2020 are all quarterbacks.
In the last 13 seasons, the NFL MVP has gone to a quarterback 12 times. Overall, a quarterback has won the award 38 times, double every other position combined. The favorite to win NFL MVP at Bovada Sportsbook right now is Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes at +450. He won MVP honors in 2018.
Following Mahomes on the MVP odds are 2019 winner Lamar Jackson at +600 and three-time MVP Tom Brady at +800. The only other player getting triple-digit odds at Bovada is Russell Wilson at +900.
Recent NFL MVPs have been betting underdogs
Going with one of the favorites to win NFL MVP would not have paid off very often in recent years. Last season Jackson was nowhere near the top of the odds heading into the season. Nor was Mahomes in 2018 as it was his first season as the Chiefs’ starting quarterback. The same can be said of underdog winners Matt Ryan in 2016 and Cam Newton in 2015.
Could there be another Ryan or Newton ready to step up and claim the award this season? The best shot may belong to Kyler Murray at +1000. Last season as a rookie, Murray put up solid yet unspectacular numbers when compared to Jackson. If he can take another step this season (and the addition of DeAndre Hopkins in Arizona should help), he could easily enter the MVP conversation.
A few other quarterbacks who could be value picks include Drew Brees (+1600), two-time MVP Aaron Rodgers (+1800), Carson Wentz (+2000) and Josh Allen (+3000).
Henry, McCaffrey have best odds among non-QBs
What if a non-quarterback wins the award for the first time since Adrian Peterson in 2012? The best odds for a non-quarterback at Bovada go to running backs Derrick Henry (+4000) and Christian McCaffrey (+4500).
Henry led the league in rushing last year and would likely have to do it again while also putting up big touchdown numbers to have a shot at the MVP. McCaffrey is a dual threat who piles up yardage on the ground and as a receiver. He put up huge numbers last season and got passed over. To get MVP attention he will likely have to lead the Carolina Panthers to a playoff spot in what is now a much tougher NFC South division.