vegas 2

  • Saturday, May 6, 2023

Las Vegas - He shoots, he scores. That was a famous Foster Hewitt line when he was calling the Toronto Maple Leafs games. We're gonna switch it up and say, they shoot, they score, they win. Talking about the Las Vegas Golden Knights. And as most of you know, I don't really care for the Knights because I bleed New York Rangers blue. But these guys. They like to shoot, and they like to score which is why Vegas has gone OVER in five of the last six games. Oh yea, they've also won FIVE in a row and seven of the last eight. And if you have not followed the season series between these two teams, lemme shed some light. Including the opening game of this series, they have played five times. In order, starting back in November, they scored a total of seven goals three times, 11 goals once and 10 goals once. So, maybe a sweet little parlay tickling Vegas and the Over.

------------------------------------------------------------------
*EckSTATic*
------------------------------------------------------------------

For your wagering pleasure, here is your spread stat of the day. Will the Lakers bounce back with a win tonight? EckStats says the chances are 90%. Why? Los Angeles has won nine of the last 10 games at home, and is also on a 5-0 winning streak after a loss.

------------------------------------------------------------------
*Kentucky Derby*
------------------------------------------------------------------

The news coming out of Churchill Downs has been NUTZ, BIZARRE, CRAZY and SAD all at once. My MAIN horse guy, Martin Calia, has been working overtime to figure it all out. Got a gorgeous writeup from Martin at midnight with Forte still on the board.

Here's that, and here's Martin...

This has been a world wind week leading up to the 149th running of the Kentucky Derby. The original 20 horse field changed due to several circumstances such as illnesses, owner decision, and even a trainer ban scratch. The current field stands at 19 total horses running for the Roses in Race 12 at Churchill Downs. So let's get to it as it figured to be a handicapping nightmare from the start with a total of six horses scratching and five gaining entry from the also eligible list !
In my opinion, the most decorated horse in the field is # 15 Forte. He is the two year old champ, he is undefeated in 2023 with two wins, lifetime he has six wins from seven starts, owns four Grade 1 wins ( Angel of Empire and Tapit Twice are the only other runners with a G1 win) and has top trainer Todd Pletcher in his corner. Regular rider Irad Ortiz Jr will try to win his first Derby with the posttime favorite. The rumour mill had Forte scratching from the race as he was viewed taking a bad step while galloping on Thursday. But Pletcher squashed it by stating Forte was fine and ready to go. I really like that this will be his third race which is supposed to be a horses best in a cycle. He has trained well over the Churchill Downs strip and will be running late to the wire. I'm hoping Ortiz can get him up close to secure position around the first turn then save some ground down the backstretch.
The bet is # 15 Forte to win. He will be the favorite so it's $100 win on # 15. I like to wheel the top horse in my exactas so a $ 5 exacta wheel 15 with all. Since this is the Derby and anything can happen I'm going to make some saver bets. I'm going to box four horses for my exacta,trifecta, and superfecta. I'm going to use # 15 Forte, # 14 Angel of Empire, # 3 Two Phil's, and #4 Confidence Game.

Then, Martin calls at 6:30 with the Forte news, and he sends this...

Got up at 630 AM Vegas time to find out bets have scratched Forte. My good friend Diggy says I'm the best " on my feet " handicapper he knows ! So we have to revise our picks for today. The field is down to 18, and we also have two Japaneese horses in this race, Derma Sotogake and Mandarin Hero, that are wild cards. At least Mandarin Hero ran in the US and almost beat Practical Move in the Santa Anita Derby and he is not considered a better horse than Sotogate ! I originally took a stand and threw both horses out of my picks. I would think they will both take significant money at the windows. My feeling is Pletchers other runner Tapit Trice will likely be the postime favorite. With all that has taken place this crazy week it turns out to be a good better race. Money is to be made so let's take another stab ! I do like Tapit Trice but he is a closer and he has to be hustled out of the starting gate to get good position around the first turn. His Jockey Luis Saez knows this and if you review his last race in the Bluegrass Stakes he had to do just that from the one post ! He did save ground around the first turn that day but had to make a 5 wide move at the half and then went 3 wide into the stretch. He did win and posted a 99 speed Beyer and a good thorograph number of 1. If he saves ground and stays close to the front runners he has a great chance to win this race. I still like Two Phil's and Angel of Empire. Both made big closing moves in there last races respectfully and are Empire is the only other Grade 1 winner besides TT in the race. So here's what I'm doing . I still like to box # 3 Two Phil's, #4 Confidence Game, # 14 Angel of Empire, and add Tapit Trice for a four horse box in exactas, trifecta, and supers. I'm also going to add # 22 Mandarin Hero and # 23 King Russell behind the top four just in case! To win I'm taking #5 Tapit Trice, a brandy new Benjamin to win, and exacta wheel him on top of everyone and hope for a long shot to come in second ! Still going to box the other picks too and hope for the best !
Good luck again!

------------------------------------------------------------------