super bowl2021
Las Vegas - Putting aside SpyGate and DeflateGate, no one can argue that Tom Brady is the G.O.A.T.
But he better watch out, because the K.I.D. (yes, that's a baby G.O.A.T), Patrick Mahomes, is coming for his title.
Before we get to the meat & potatoes, here are the spread stats you'll need. The Bucs are 14-5 straight up and 11-8 against the spread. They are 5-3 ATS at home and 4-1 as an underdog. They went Over 11 times and Under 8 (4-4 to the Over home).
Looking at the Chiefs, they are 16-2 straight up and 7-10-1 against the spread. They are 3-4-1 ATS on the road and 6-9-1 as a favorite. They went Over 9 times and Under 8 times with one push (4-4 to the Over on the road).
Where do you look first? It's always nice to lean on past performances, and we have a couple to throw at you.
Kaycee flew down to Tampa in week 12 of the regular season and picked up a 27-24 victory. Ask me if the game was that close? It was and it wasn't. The Chiefs stormed out to a 17-0 lead at the end of the 1st quarter, were up 20-7 at the half, and 27-10 after three quarters. So, OBVIOUSLY, they took their collective foot off the gas pedal, TB12 went nuts in the 4th Q, and almost pulled out a W. Moral of that story is, DON'T EVER slow down when Brady is on the other side of the field. Just ask the Falcons who were caressing a Super Bowl ring with a 28-9 lead heading into the 4th Q. You know the rest. NINETEEN points from Tommy Terrific to force OT, and then an eight play 75 yard drive to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. If you're not sure where that saying came from, of course, I gotcha. Representative William Bissell of Illinois, chided another congressman, James Seddon of Virginia, for saying that a Mississippi regiment at the 1847 battle of Buena Vista in the Mexican-American war had 'snatched victory from the jaws of defeat.'
Gotta ask you to join me in the way back machine for a look at Super Bowl XLII when the New York Giants STUNNED an 18-0 New England team with two late TDs for a 17-14 W. And just in case your memory is a little hazy, that Patriot team was the highest scoring offensive team in NFL history at the time. So, why mention an old Super Bowl? Two words. Steve Spagnuolo. Stevie Spags was the defensive coordinator for the NYG in that game, and Brady was harassed for the full 60 minutes. He completed 29 of 48 for just 266 yards and was sacked FIVE times. And last year, Spagnuolo added another Super Ring to his collection when Kansas City beat the 49ers, 31-20. Two Super Bowls with ONLY 34 points allowed!
Stevie Spags comes from the Jim Johnson defensive tree, which is, as everyone who bleeds green knows, the GLORY years for the Eagles D. From 2000–07, Johnson's units rank tied for first in the NFL with 342 sacks, second in the league in 3rd down efficiency (34.3%) and red zone touchdown percentage (43.0%), and fourth in fewest points allowed (17.6 per game). In 2001, Double J's D became the fourth team in NFL history to go ALL 16 games without allowing more than 21 points. So you know Spagnuolo ain't gonna dial down the pressure on Sunday. And pressure has been a problem for TB12 all year. During the regular season, when Brady wasn't pressured, he posted the league's fifth-best QBR at 84.3. When he was pressured, his QBR fell all the way to 6.4, SIX POINT FOUR, which ranked 30th among 33 qualifying QBs.
My only worry is the Kaycee offensive line. They lost All-Pro Eric Fisher and All-Pro Mitchell Schwartz. Not great news, but some how, some way, Andy Reid will figure out a way to mitigate the problems.
If these guys were healthy, and throwing pancakes at the Bucs defense, this woulda been a BEST BET. Not quite a $3.46 million dollar wager like Jim "Mattress Mack" McIngvale from Houston, but a large fistful of Benjamins. But now, we're gonna downgrade, making the wager much thinner. Still thinking that no matter what Brady does, Mahomes will have an answer. Of course, you GOTTA check the COVID-19 list the next few days just in case, and as long as there are no surprises, and no rain, gonna throw a 31-26 final at you as Big Red/The Walrus and the Chiefs go back-to-back!
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This is our last visit to PROP CITY BAABBBEEE!!!
Looks like we got a WINNER even before they sing. Apparently, some dude was outside the stadium and recorded the National Anthem rehearsal. It went 2:14, so the Over would be a winner. Just about all sportsbooks have STOPPED taking bets on the Anthem, but will honor bets already made. That's me, WINNER!
Not sure you can down on this, but if you can, this is my BEST BET of all the prop wagers. Will any scoring drive be less time than the length of the Anthem? Yes is a whopping favorite and it IS my BEST BET BAABBBEEE!!!
Here are the rest of my props:
First player to score a TD. Gimme a small taste of Leonard Fournette at 10/1 and Clyde Edwards-Helaire at 15/1. Also gonna try Patrick Mahomes at 20/1 because, well, because he's FREAKIN' PATRICK MAHOMES!
Saving the majority of my chips for the two Tampa Bay tight ends, Cameron Brate and Rob Gronkowski, both right around 20/1.
Looking at a Patrick Mahomes Over/Under prop for his longest rush. The number is set at 10.5 yards and we're gonna go over.
Don't wanna leave out Tom Brady, and we're looking at what he will do first. Throw a TD which is -$320 or an INT which is +$260? Gonna toss a few chips at the INT.
Patrick Mahomes and the Over/Under on total TD passes. It's listed at 2.5 which is kind of STEALING MONEY! Gimme Patrick Over for the money!
Team to kick the longest field goal. It's an even money bet, and like Kaycee because of Harrison Butker.
Like Over 6.5 total touchdowns.
Gonna close out the visit to Prop City with a little cross-sport action. The prop is, which be higher: Travis Kelce receiving yards (-$240), or, the highest round score at the Masters (+$200). Gotta drop my chips on Kelce and lay the big price.
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*NFL*
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*Favorite * *Points* *Underdog*
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* *Open *Current* O/U* *
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*Super Bowl LV*
*Tampa Bay, FL*
Chiefs * 3.5 * 3 * (56.5) * BUCS*
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Money Line: Chiefs -$165 vs. Bucs +$145*
1st half line: Chiefs -2.5*
1st half total: Over/under 27.5*
1st half money Line: Chiefs -$150 vs. Bucs +$130*
1st Q line: Chiefs -0.5*
1st Q total: Over/under 10.0*
1st Q money Line: Chiefs -$140 vs. Bucs +$120*
2nd Q line: Chiefs -0.5*
2nd Q total: Over/under 17.0*
2nd Q money Line: Chiefs -$165vs. Bucs +$145*
3rd Q line: Chiefs -0.5*
3rd Q total: Over/under 10.5*
3rd Q money Line: Chiefs -$150 vs. Bucs +$130*
4th Q line: Chiefs -0.5*
4th Q total: Over/under 14.5*
4th Q money Line: Chiefs -$140 vs. Bucs +$120*
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Pat Mahomes total passing yards: Over/under 327.5*
Tom Brady total passing yards: Over/under 299.5*
Pat Mahomes total TD passes: Over/under 2.5*
Tom Brady total TD passes: Over/under 2.5*
Pat Mahomes total pass attempts: Over/under 41.5*
Tom Brady total pass attempts: Over/under 40.5*
Pat Mahomes total completions: Over/under 28.5*
Tom Brady total completions: Over/under 26.5*
Pat Mahomes longest completion: Over/under 40.5*
Tom Brady longest completion: Over/under 39.5*
Pat Mahomes completion percentage: Over/under 70.5%*
Tom Brady completion percentage: Over/under 62.5%*
Pat Mahomes total rushing yards: Over/under 19.5*
Tom Brady total rushing yards: Over/under 4.5*
Leonard Fournette rushing yards: Over/under 49.5*
Darrel Williams rushing yards: Over/under 41.5*
Travis Kelce receiving yards: Over/under 101.5*
Tyreek Hill receiving yards: Over/under 90.5*
Chris Godwin receiving yards: Over/under 75.5*
Mike Evans receiving yards: Over/under 64.5*
Rob Gronkowski receiving yards: Over/under 31.5*
Cameron Brate receiving yards: Over/under 27.5*
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Total points for Chiefs: Over/under 29.5*
Total points for Bucs: Over/under 26.5*
Total points for Chiefs 1st half: Over/under 15.5*
Total points for Bucs 1st half: Over/under 13.5*
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Longest TD scored: Over/under 46.5 yards*
Shortest TD scored: Over/under 1.5 yards*
Longest FG scored: Over/under 48.5 yards*
Shortest FG scored: Over/under 26.5 yards*
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*National Anthem Over/Under*
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How long will it take Eric Church & Jazmine Sullivan
to sing the National Anthem: Over/under 1:59*
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*Who will sing the first note*
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Jazmine Sullivan * 1/2*
Eric Church * 6/5*
Both together * 3/2*
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*Who will sing the last note*
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Jazmine Sullivan * 1/2*
Eric Church * 6/5*
Both together * 3/2*
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*Will any scoring drive be less than the Anthem*
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Yes * -$350*
vs.
No * +$225*
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*Total Passing Yards*
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Mahomes * Yards * Brady*
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x/x * 200 yards or more * 1/10*
1/8 * 250 yards or more * 1/4*
1/2 * 300 yards or more * 1/2*
even * 350 yards or more * 2/1*
7/2 * 400 yards or more * 5/1*
10/1 * 450 yards or more * x/x*
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*Longest Pass Completion*
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Mahomes * Yards * Brady*
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9/2 * 0-24 yards * 4/1*
6/5 * 25-39 yards * 6/5*
2/1 * 40-54 yards * 2/1*
7/2 * 55 yards or more * 4/1*
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*Total Rushing Yards*
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Fournette * Yards * Williams*
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1/5 * 25 yards or more * 1/3*
1/2 * 50 yards or more * even*
2/1 * 75 yards or more * 3/1*
9/2 * 100 yards or more * 8/1*
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*Total Receiving Yards*
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Kelce * Yards * Godwin*
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1/4 * 75 yards or more * 4/5*
1/2 * 100 yards or more * 3/2*
3/2 * 125 yards or more * 4/1*
3/1 * 150 yards or more * 8/1*
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*Total Receiving Yards*
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Hill * Yards * Evans*
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1/2 * 75 yards or more * even*
even * 100 yards or more * 5/2*
2/1 * 125 yards or more * 5/1*
9/2 * 150 yards or more * 10/1*
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*Winning Margin Proposition*
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Chiefs * Winning Margin * Bucs*
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7/2 * 1-6 points * 4/1*
5/1 * 7-12 points * 6/1*
8/1 * 13-18 points * 10/1*
10/1 * 19-24 points * 15/1*
15/1 * 25-30 points * 30/1*
25/1 * 31-36 points * 40/1*
40/1 * 37-42 points * 60/1*
50/1 * 43 or more points * 100/1*
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*What will Mahomes throw first*
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TD * -$360*
vs.
INT * +$300*
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*What will Brady throw first*
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TD * -$320*
vs.
INT * +$260*
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*How long will Mahomes' first TD pass be*
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Under 13.5 yards * -$120*
vs.
Over 13.5 yards * even*
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*How long will Brady's first TD pass be*
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Under 12.5 yards * -$110*
vs.
Over 12.5 yards * -$110*
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*Which QB will throw the first TD*
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Mahomes * -$140*
vs.
Brady * +$120*
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*Which QB will throw the first INT*
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Brady * -$145*
vs.
Mahomes * +$125*
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*Coin Toss*
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Heads * even*
vs.
Tails * even*
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*First Turnover*
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Interception * -$140*
vs.
Fumble * +$120*
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*Will there be a roughing the passer penalty*
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No * -$120*
vs.
Yes * even*
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*Will there be a safety*
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No * 1/15*
vs.
Yes * 8/1*
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*Will either team make a 2-point conversion*
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No * 1/3*
vs.
Yes * 5/2*
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*Will either team miss an XP conversion*
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No * 1/3*
vs.
Yes * 5/2*
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*Will any quarter end scoreless*
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No * 1/15*
vs.
Yes * 8/1*
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*First offensive play from scrimmage*
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Pass * 4/5*
vs.
Run * even*
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*Any FG or XP to hit the crossbar*
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No * 1/5*
vs.
Yes * 4/1*
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*1st half 2 minute warning at exactly 2:00*
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Yes * 1/4*
vs.
No * 3/1*
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*2nd half 2 minute warning at exactly 2:00*
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Yes * 1/3*
vs.
No * 5/2*
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*Final play of the game is a QB kneel down*
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Yes * 1/2*
vs.
No * 3/2*
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*First drive of the game*
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Punt * 4/5*
Touchdown * 2/1*
Field goal attempt * 9/2*
Turnover * 8/1*
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*Exact Total TDs*
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0 * 100/1*
1 * 50/1*
2 * 25/1*
3 * 10/1*
4 * 8/1*
5 * 9/2*
6 * 9/2*
7 * 9/2*
8 * 6/1*
9 * 8/1*
10 or more * 5/1*
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*Exact Total FGs*
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0 * 20/1*
1 * 6/1*
2 * 7/2*
3 * 3/1*
4 * 7/2*
5 * 5/1*
6 or more * 5/1*
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*Total TDs*
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Over * TDs * Under*
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1/2 * 5.5 * 3/2*
4/5 * 6.5 * 4/5*
3/2 * 7.5 * 1/2*
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*Total FGs*
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Over * FGs * Under*
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1/2 * 2.5 * 3/2*
even * 3.5 * 1/2*
5/2 * 4.5 * 1/3*
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*Double Result*
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Chiefs lead at halftime & win * 6/5*
Bucs lead at halftime & win * 5/2*
Chiefs lead at halftime & Bucs win * 7/1*
Bucs lead at halftime & Chiefs win * 6/1*
Tied at halftime & Chiefs win * 15/1*
Tied at halftime & Bucs win * 20/1*
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*First scoring play*
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Chiefs touchdown * 3/2*
Bucs touchdown * 2/1*
Chiefs field goal * 4/1*
Bucs field goal * 9/2*
Chiefs safety * 50/1*
Bucs safety * 50/1*
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*Spread/Total Points Parlay*
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Chiefs & Over * 3/1*
Chiefs & Under * 5/2*
Bucs & Over * 5/2*
Bucs & Under * 5/2*
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*Highest scoring quarter*
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2nd quarter * 3/2*
4th quarter * 5/2*
3rd quarter * 9/2*
1st quarter * 5/1*
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*Punt Props*
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Under 6.5 punts * 1/2*
vs.
Over 6.5 punts * 6/5*
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*Total Chiefs Punts*
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Under 3.5 punts * 1/2*
vs.
Over 3.5 punts * 6/5*
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*Total Bucs Punts*
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Under 3.5 punts * even*
vs.
Over 3.5 punts * 4/5*
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*Team to Punt first*
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Bucs * 1/2*
vs.
Chiefs * 6/5*
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*Team to have the most Punts*
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Bucs * 1/2*
vs.
Chiefs * 6/5*
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*Punt downed inside the 5-yard line*
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No * 1/4*
vs.
Yes * 7/2*
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*Odds to win the Super Bowl MVP*
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Player * Odds*
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Patrick Mahomes * 4/5*
Tom Brady * 2/1*
Tyreek Hill * 12/1*
Travis Kelce * 15/1*
Leonard Fournette * 25/1*
Clyde Edwards-Helaire * 30/1*
Mike Evans * 30/1*
Chris Godwin * 30/1*
Darrell Williams * 40/1*
Tyrann Mathieu * 40/1*
Mecole Hardman * 50/1*
Devin White * 50/1*
Shaquil Barrett * 50/1*
Ronald Jones II * 50/1*
Antonio Brown * 60/1*
Rob Gronkowski * 70/1*
Jason Pierre-Paul * 75/1*
Sammy Watkins * 80/1*
Cameron Brate * 80/1*
Le'Veon Bell * 100/1*
Ndamukong Suh * 100/1*
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*Player to score first TD*
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Player * Odds*
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Travis Kelce * 6/1*
Tyreek Hill * 6/1*
Leonard Fournette * 10/1*
Mike Evans * 10/1*
Chris Godwin * 10/1*
Clyde Edwards-Helaire * 15/1*
Darrell Williams * 15/1*
Mecole Hardman * 15/1*
Ronald Jones II * 20/1*
Antonio Brown * 20/1*
Rob Gronkowski * 20/1*
Cameron Brate * 20/1*
Sammy Watkins * 20/1*
Patrick Mahomes * 22/1*
Demarcus Robinson * 25/1*
Byron Pringle * 25/1*
Scotty Miller * 30/1*
Tom Brady * 30/1*
Le'Veon Bell * 40/1*
LeSean McCoy * 75/1*
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*ECKS 2021 SUPER BOWL SPREAD STATS*
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*2020*
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Bucs - Overall spread record * 11-8-0*
Bucs - Spread record as a favorite * 7-7-0*
Bucs - Spread record as an underdog * 4-1-0*
Bucs - Spread record on the road * 6-5-0*
Bucs - Spread record to the Over * 11-0-0*
Bucs - Spread record to the Under * 8-0-0*
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*2020*
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Chiefs - Overall spread record * 7-10-1*
Chiefs - Spread record as a favorite * 6-9-1*
Chiefs - Spread record as an underdog * 1-1-0*
Chiefs - Spread record on the road * 3-4-1*
Chiefs - Spread record to the Over * 9-0-0*
Chiefs - Spread record to the Under * 9-0-0*
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*GATORADE PROPS*
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*What color Gatorade will be poured on winning coach*
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Orange * 5/2*
Clear * 7/2*
Red/Pink * 4/1*
Yellow/Green/Lime * 5/1*
Blue * 8/1*
Purple * 10/1*
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*TV COMMERCIAL PROPS*
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*Which bag is seen first during the Frito-Lay ad*
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Lay's * 2/1*
Doritos * 5/2*
Tostitos * 5/2*
Cheetos * 3/1*
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*TV COMMERCIAL PROPS*
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*Which will be the first Anheuser-Busch brand ad*
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Bud Light * 6/5*
Michelob Ultra * 2/1*
Bud Light Seltzer Lemonade * 2/1*
Michelob Ultra Organic Lemonade * 2/1*
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*WEEKND PROPS*
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*Which song will The Weeknd sing first*
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“Blinding Lights” * 3/1*
“Pray For Me” * 7/2*
“Star Boy” * 4/1*
“Can't Feel My Face” * 4/1*
“Hawaii” * 8/1*
“I Feel It Coming” * 10/1*
“The Hills” * 10/1*
“Save Your Tears” * 15/1*
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*Cross Sport Props*
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What will be higher:
Tom Brady pass completions -$120*
vs.
New York Knicks 1st quarter points -$120*
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What will be higher:
Tom Brady TD passes -$240*
vs.
Alex Ovechkin total points -$200*
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What will be higher:
Winning horse number in Kentucky Derby -$150*
vs.
Travis Kelce receptions +$130*
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What will be higher:
Travis Kelce receiving yards -$240*
vs.
Highest round score at the Masters +$200*
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What will be higher:
Rob Gronkowski receiving yards -$120*
vs.
Tampa Bay Lightning shots on goal -$120*
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What will be higher:
Ronald Jones III carries -$160*
vs.
Chris Paul assists +$140*
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*Wacky Super Bowl Food Trends*
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1 - There will be 1.4 BILLION chicken wings eaten.
2 - There will be 10 MILLION pounds of ribs sold.
3 - There will be 28 MILLION pounds of chips eaten.
4 - There will be 8 MILLION pounds of guacamole eaten.
5 - There will be 51 MILLION cases of beer sold.
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