final 4
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Las Vegas - No matter which way you look, what power ratings you study, these games should be spectacular, maybe. The SEC takes to the court in the opener with Florida -2.5 points over Auburn. In the power ratings conversation, we always look at KenPom and he has this game basically a pick'em with Florida at 36.06 and Auburn at 35.28. We also follow Haslametrics and he has Florida at 78.93 and Auburn at 77.69. And we do have history from this season when the Gators went to Auburn on February 8 and beat the Tigers 90-81 as a +11 point underdog. The Over/Under total was listed at 156.5 and went WAY HIGH. Of course we looked at the box score and as you might imagine, Walter Clayton Jr. led the Gators with 19 points and 9 assists, while Johni Broome had a double/double with 18 points and 11 boards. Shooting percentages were relatively even from the field but Florida had a YUGE edge from the free throw line. The Gators hit on 15 of 18 (83.3%) while the Tigers managed just 14 of 23 (60.9%). This has been a problem for Auburn. The Tigers were also awful against Michigan State in the Elite Eight game hitting on only 11 of 20 (55.0%). If, as everyone suspects, this game comes down to the wire, it's Florida with a substantial edge. Gators for the money.
Which school do you come from? A great defense beats a great offense? Or, a great offense beats a great defense? This is exactly what we have in the Duke/Houston game according to KenPom. The Blue Devils are a -5 or -5.5 point favorite depending on where you shop, but only three points according the KenPom. He has Duke at 39.63 and Houston at 36.42. But getting into the weeds and breaking it down even further, the Devils are THE BEST offensive team this season and have the highest offensive rating EVER on the KenPom charts. The Cougars are THE BEST defensive team with the best rating in years. So, again, which school do you attend? Whew, tough one. Duke comes in on a 15-0 straight up run with an 11-4 record against the spread. Houston is a touch better straight up, bringing a 17-0 run to San Antonio, but just 8-9 during that stretch against the spread. Think that the Blue Devils will be playing on Monday night but a little nervous laying 5 or 5.5 points. So, gimme the Dookies on the money line.
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